Ceprode Venezuelan Petroleum 2011

Colombia-Venezuela Relations and Colombian Foreign Policy (March 11, 2011)

Prepared: March, 2011

Author: Ceprode.es

Colombia's foreign policy and bilateral relations with Venezuela

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Colombian Foreign Policy Objectives

Colombia's foreign policy in 2011 aimed at a broad re-calibration of its international engagement with the following objectives:

• Diversification of international relations by actively integrating into economic and political dynamics of Asia and the Pacific regions. This reflects Colombia’s strategic pivot beyond traditional Western partners to embrace emerging global markets and political spheres.

• Expansion of thematic agendas both with traditional allies such as the United States and Europe, and with new partners, to ensure Colombia's interests are represented across a wider spectrum of international issues.

• Utilization of international organizations, both formal (UN, OAS, etc.) and informal (regional forums, alliances), to forward Colombia’s diplomatic, economic, and security interests.

• Normalization and strengthening of relations within Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly emphasizing the normalization of Colombia-Venezuela relations given their complex historical and geopolitical relationship.

Colombian-Venezuelan Relations: Issues and Dynamics

Resource Conflict and Border Issues

• In the Colombian departments of Vichada, Guainía, and Vaupés (Orinoquía region), adjacent to the Venezuelan border, there are deposits of the so-called "blue gold," i.e., water resources critical to the region.

• Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez militarized these border sectors under the justification of preventing resource exploitation and illicit extraction (“looting”).

• On the Colombian side, water resources are traded informally and are subject to cross-border smuggling by both Colombians and Venezuelans.

• Colombia experiences a legislative gap in regulating this trade and resource management, which could escalate into bilateral disputes if left unresolved.

• Despite the sensitivity, Colombian analysts believe this issue does not currently rank among the serious irritants that threaten diplomatic relations, and holds promise for resolution through bilateral negotiation.

Sources of Bilateral Tension

Core tensions affecting Colombia-Venezuela relations:

1. FARC-ETA and Chávez’s Connections

• Evidence indicates links between Hugo Chávez’s government and Colombian guerrilla groups FARC and ETA, which are regarded as terrorist organizations by Colombia and many international allies.

• The diplomatic response from Colombia can vary:

  • If Colombia openly condemns these links, diplomatic relations visibly deteriorate and tensions rise.

  • If Colombia remains silent or neutral, other countries such as Spain and possibly others may publicly comment or intervene.

• There exists a legal possibility of involving the International Criminal Court to address these issues, especially for crimes related to terrorism and support for outlawed armed groups.

• Colombia’s diplomatic balancing act preserves relations with Venezuela but risks undermining its standing in key international alliances such as the United States and the European Union.

2. The "Makled-Chávez" Extradition Controversy

• The extradition case of the fugitive "Makled" (a figure linked to drug trafficking and corruption allegations) emerges as a focal point in bilateral and international diplomatic controversy.

• Two primary extradition scenarios:

  • Extradition to Venezuela: This scenario attracts intense international political attention. Colombia and the US manage communications discreetly, hoping to navigate the delicate implications.

  • Extradition to the United States: This alternative, linked to promises reportedly made by Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos that were not fulfilled, caused strains in Colombia-Venezuela relations. It is perceived as an alignment with US interests against Venezuela.

• There are perceptions that US influence operates behind the scenes to steer Colombia’s decisions in this case, affecting bilateral trust.

3. Broader Foreign Policy Issues Affecting Colombia

• Iran Relations: Colombia maintains some cooperation with Iran despite United Nations sanctions, requiring cautious diplomatic management. Colombia, having a seat on the UN Security Council at the time, must balance international obligations with its strategic interests.

• Nuclear Plant and Arms Race Concerns: Mention of a Venezuelan nuclear facility and an arms race hints at regional security anxieties, particularly regarding military modernization and potential proliferation concerns.

Domestic Political Factors Influencing Foreign Relations

• Colombia's human rights situation draws scrutiny from international observers, necessitating official responses to avoid diplomatic isolation or criticism.

• The Organic Labor Law, which triggered social unrest and street protests, reflects deep societal tensions that could affect national stability and diplomatic image.

• Economic issues, such as inflation and economic crisis, pose internal challenges that intersect with Colombia’s foreign engagement primarily through economic diplomacy and international cooperation.

• The 2012 elections are a pivotal moment with two contrasting outcomes:

  • Unfavorable results may trigger political crisis, potentially involving the military and international interventions to stabilize governance.

  • Favorable results for the incumbent party could provoke opposition claims of electoral fraud, perpetuating political instability and crisis.

• Parliamentary opposition remains an active force within Colombia’s political landscape, influencing internal policy debates and indirectly impacting how foreign policy initiatives are shaped and perceived.

End of Report

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