CEPRODE 1999–2009: Full Report
- Editorial Staff
- May 23, 2025
- 4 min read
Prepared: January, 2010
Author: Ceprode.es
Download the full report here:
Introduction
The Centro de Profundización de la Democracia (CEPRODE) is a non-governmental, non-profit organization specializing in the production of knowledge for political analysis. Founded in 1997, CEPRODE has established itself over a decade (1999–2009) as a pluralist, non-partisan think tank focused on reducing uncertainty in political decision-making and scenario assessment.
Mission and Approach
CEPRODE’s primary objective is to generate valuable information for improved analysis of political contexts. It aims to minimize uncertainty for successful political and business management, providing strategic and anticipatory intelligence crucial for timely decision-making.
The organization operates under the premise articulated by Seneca: “There is no favorable wind for those who do not know where they are going.” Embracing scenario planning and foresight, CEPRODE employs political prospectiva, a discipline that treats the future as a constructible reality dependent on human action, rather than a predetermined destiny.
Methodologies and Tools
Prospectiva (Political Foresight)
CEPRODE was among the first institutions in Latin America to apply prospectiva in the political sphere. The idea is not to predict the future in a supernatural sense, but to analyze possible futures, choose the best options, and begin building towards them.
Analytical Frameworks
CEPRODE’s analytical tools include:
Expert vision through novel methodologies
Actor behavior analysis
Mathematical probability calculations
Game theory models
Specialized software
Extensive information sources
A neutral, skilled analyst team
These elements, collectively described as the organization's “headlights,” enable deeper insight into rapidly changing environments—a necessity, as highlighted by Gastón Berger’s analogy of driving faster requiring more powerful headlights.
Achievements and Impact
Over the reviewed decade, CEPRODE’s forecasts were correct in 95% of cases regarding political scenario or event occurrence probabilities.
Their strategic indices have proven highly effective for:
Anticipating major changes in the environment
Providing actionable intelligence for political science experts, business leaders, politicians, international organizations, and investors
CEPRODE underscores the importance of having a forward-looking perspective, likened to the “lookout” on a ship, whose timely alerts prevent the vessel from running aground or being caught in a storm.
Case Study: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Background
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a professor at New York University and senior researcher at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, has over 25 years developed a mathematical model capable of predicting outcomes for nearly any international conflict, provided the input data is accurate. His client list includes President Barack Obama, Fortune 500 companies, the CIA, and the US Department of Defense.
Performance and Recognition
Bueno de Mesquita's predictions are notably precise, with over 2,000 cases ranging from terrorism threats to peace processes. For example:
In 2004, following the Madrid train bombings, the Pentagon tasked him to forecast potential election-targeted terror attacks in the US. He accurately predicted both the absence of attacks and the timing of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s reappearance.
His model’s accuracy was validated in real-time tests by the CIA (90% success) and in a European policy study (97% match between forecast and actual outcomes).
Methodology: Game Theory
Central to Bueno de Mesquita’s work is game theory, a mathematical approach analyzing strategic human interactions. Though initially developed for economics and later adapted in military strategy (e.g., Mutually Assured Destruction), game theory now sees applications in fields such as biology, philosophy, AI, and cybernetics.
For Bueno de Mesquita, game theory is “the mathematics that analyzes how people behave strategically.” His firm, Mesquita & Roundell, typically delivers analyses within three weeks for a base price of $50,000, advising business mergers (e.g., British Aerospace’s acquisition of Marconi Electronic Systems in 2000) and high-stakes governmental decision-making.
Notable Predictions
Foretold the Second Intifada and collapse of the Middle East peace process two years ahead.
Correctly predicted Andropov as Brezhnev’s successor in the USSR (when he was not considered a possibility).
Anticipated the ouster of Ortega and the Sandinistas in Nicaragua two years before it happened.
Foresaw the Chinese hardline response at Tiananmen Square four months in advance.
Predicted the implementation details of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement between Great Britain and the IRA.
Predicted the recovery and exact handover details of Hong Kong to China twelve years before the event.
CEPRODE’s Information Services
CEPRODE produces analytical reports independently to maintain impartiality and objectivity. Its risk, governability, and other ratings are opinions—not investment recommendations or statements of fact. All information is sourced carefully, with some confidential information withheld in accordance with strict internal policies.
Published by Prospectiva y Estrategia, CEPRODE’s specialized division, the organization operates from its corporate offices in La Paz, Bolivia.
Contact Information (as of 2009)
Phones: 591-72001482
Fax: 591-2-2793748
Address: Calle Man Cesped Nº 3542, La Florida, La Paz, Bolivia
Website: www.ceprode.org
Copyright and Usage
All content is © 2009 CEPRODE, published with all rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without authorization. Published data is for informational purposes and should not be treated as definitive advice or recommendations. Independence in analysis is a core value to safeguard objectivity.
This report consolidates and translates all substantial information from the attached 1999–2009 CEPRODE document, highlighting its methodologies, achievements, and the case of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita as a paradigm of mathematical political analysis.
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